Friday, February 28, 2014
ראיון נהדר עם - Walt Peters סוחר פורקס מקצועי
בראיון וולטר מספר על הדרך הארוכה שעבר עד שהגיע להיות סוחר מקצועי שעושה זאת למחייתו ונותן גם טיפים לכל מי שבתחילת דרכו או עוד מדשדש/מפסיד.
תהנו
25 כללי משמעת לסוחרים יומיים
- השוק משלם ומתגמל סוחרים בעלי משמעת עצמית
- בכל יום ובכל עסקה ,שמור על משמעת עצמית, והשוק יתגמל אותך- אם אתה לא ממושמע 100% אל תטען שאתה סוחר עם משמעת עצמית
- כאשר אתה מרגיש שאתה סוחר בצורה "לא טובה" תקטין את גודל העסקאות
- לעולם אל תהפוך עסקה מרוויחה לעסקה מפסידה
- הקפד על כך שגודל ההפסד הגדול ביותר שלך יהיה קטן (משמעותית) מגודל הרווח הגדול ביותר שלך
- פתח שיטה קבועה למסחר שמתאימה לך ודבוק בה בכל יום , אל תנסה כל יום שיטה אחרת
- תהייה אתה עצמך , וסחור בשיטה שמתאימה לך , אל תנסה לחקות ולהיות מישהו אחר
- תמיד תשמור על אפשרות להישאר במשחק , לעולם אל תסכן יותר משאתה יכול לספוג שימנע ממך להמשיך לסחור
- לפני שאתה סוחר בכמויות גדולות , תרוויח את הזכות , קודם תהייה רווחי בכמויות קטנות ורק אז תחשוב להגדיל כמות , בשום פנים ואופן לא הפוך.
- תחתוך הפסדים - אתה לא סוחר גרוע אם יש לך עסקאות מפסידות , אתה סוחר גרוע אם אתה מזהה אותם ונותן להם להמשיך להפסיד
- תחתוך עסקה מפסידה במהירות , אל תגיד זה רק הפסד על הנייר , תחתוך אותה במהירות
- אם אתה מגיע למצב שבו אתה מקווה שעסקה תלך לטובתך,מתפלל שהעסקה תצליח - רוב הסיכויים שתפסיד
- אל תדאג בגלל חדשות שאתה רואה בטלוויזיה -הם היסטוריה וכבר מגולמות במחיר
- אל תשער שאתה יודע מה יקרה אל תנסה להתנבא ואל תצפה כי זה דרך מהירה מאוד להפסיד
- תלמד לאהוב להפסיד כסף - כן להפסיד כסף זה חלק משגרת המקצוע תלמד לקבל את זה בהבנה
- אם עסקה לא פועלת בטווח זמן המצופה שים לב, יכול להיות זה סימן שצריך לצאת ממנה לפני שתלך נגדך
- תרוויח כל יום קצת ,בצורה קבועה והכסף הגדול יגיע
- אל תספוג הפסד כבד מדי שיכול לפגוע בך , שים לב לסעיפים 5 ו 8 , תמנע מהפסדים שיזעזעו אותך
- אל תנסה להבקיע טאצדאון בעסקה אחת תתקדם לאט ובטוח ,התקדמות קבועה מובילה למטרה
- תעבוד על בניית הביטחון והמשמעת העצמית שלך באופן קבוע , זה מה שיבדיל אותך בסופו של דבר מסוחר חובבן לסוחר מקצוען ומרוויח
- המטרה שלך צריכה להיות שאיפה להגדיל את הרווחים מהעסקאות הטובות ולשמור שגודל ההפסדים לא יגדל
- תבצע בכל יום את אותה שיטה , כמו מכונה בפס יצור
- תזהר מלנתח יותר מדי ,מלדחות ולהסס , אם השיטה אומרת להכנס תכנס , הססנות ופחד גורמים להפסדים
- תזכור שמבחינת השוק כל הסוחרים שווים
- השוק הוא שקובע , תכבד אותו והוא יתגמל אותך בחזרה
מאת דאגלס זאלסקי
תרגום לעברית:יוסי וינבייטר
תרגום לעברית:יוסי וינבייטר
Friday, February 21, 2014
22.02.2014
תמונת מצב של ה- S@P 500. נמצא בסמוך להתנגדות חזקה ב- 1850 כרגע נסחר בתעלה עולה, תמיכה 1822.
EUR/USD:
מה עשיתי היום?
ביצעתי שורט קצר Counter Trend Style על הצמד EUR/JPY שהראה חולשה בטווח הקצר.
בולי עליון/סטייה דובית, Bearish Engulfing - בהחלט סימן לחולשה בזמן הקרוב, נכנסתי שורט באישור הנר עם מעקב צמוד בגרף 5 דקות.
כך רשמתי בפייסבוק דקות בודדות לפני לקיחת הטרייד:
shorted the EUR/JPY on 140.52 base on the 1hr chart, stop 140.82 last target 140.05, first target 140.30. r/r = 1:1.5.
היעד הראשון הגיע דיי במהירות, מימשתי שם חצי כמות והורדתי את הסטופ ל- 140.62. לאחר שהבחנתי בעצמה של קונים באזור לפי גרף 5 הדקות החלטתי לממש את החצי השני ולחכות להזדמנות כניסה לשורט מחודשת במידה ותתרחש, אך לא קיבלתי והמחיר טס לכיוון 141.80.
50$ בשעה וחצי של עבודה, כולל הניתוח לפני כן כמובן.
ועוד סקאלפ קצר ב- USD/JPY.
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
21 משפטים על איך אנשים עשירים חושבים לעומת אנשים ממוצעים:
21 משפטים על איך אנשים עשירים חושבים לעומת אנשים ממוצעים:
1. Average people think MONEY is the root of all evil. Rich people believe POVERTY is the root of all evil.
2. Average people think selfishness is a vice. Rich people think selfishness is a virtue....
3. Average people have a lottery mentality. Rich people have an action mentality.
4. Average people think the road to riches is paved with formal education. Rich people believe in acquiring specific knowledge.
5. Average people long for the good old days. Rich people dream of the future.
6. Average people see money through the eyes of emotion. Rich people think about money logically.
7. Average people earn money doing things they don't love. Rich people follow their passion.
8. Average people set low expectations so they're never disappointed. Rich people are up for the challenge.
9. Average people believe you have to DO something to get rich. Rich people believe you have to BE something to get rich.
10. Average people believe you need money to make money. Rich people use other people's money.
11. Average people believe the markets are driven by logic and strategy. Rich people know they're driven by emotion and greed.
12. Average people live beyond their means. Rich people live below theirs.
13. Average people teach their children how to survive. Rich people teach their kids to get rich.
14. Average people let money stress them out. Rich people find peace of mind in wealth.
15. Average people would rather be entertained than educated. Rich people would rather be educated than entertained.
16. Average people think rich people are snobs. Rich people just want to surround themselves with like-minded people.
17. Average people focus on saving. Rich people focus on earning.
18. Average people play it safe with money. Rich people know when to take risks.
19. Average people love to be comfortable. Rich people find comfort in uncertainty.
20. Average people never make the connection between money and health. Rich people know money can save your life.
21. Average people believe they must choose between a great family and being rich. Rich people know you can have it all.
1. Average people think MONEY is the root of all evil. Rich people believe POVERTY is the root of all evil.
2. Average people think selfishness is a vice. Rich people think selfishness is a virtue....
3. Average people have a lottery mentality. Rich people have an action mentality.
4. Average people think the road to riches is paved with formal education. Rich people believe in acquiring specific knowledge.
5. Average people long for the good old days. Rich people dream of the future.
6. Average people see money through the eyes of emotion. Rich people think about money logically.
7. Average people earn money doing things they don't love. Rich people follow their passion.
8. Average people set low expectations so they're never disappointed. Rich people are up for the challenge.
9. Average people believe you have to DO something to get rich. Rich people believe you have to BE something to get rich.
10. Average people believe you need money to make money. Rich people use other people's money.
11. Average people believe the markets are driven by logic and strategy. Rich people know they're driven by emotion and greed.
12. Average people live beyond their means. Rich people live below theirs.
13. Average people teach their children how to survive. Rich people teach their kids to get rich.
14. Average people let money stress them out. Rich people find peace of mind in wealth.
15. Average people would rather be entertained than educated. Rich people would rather be educated than entertained.
16. Average people think rich people are snobs. Rich people just want to surround themselves with like-minded people.
17. Average people focus on saving. Rich people focus on earning.
18. Average people play it safe with money. Rich people know when to take risks.
19. Average people love to be comfortable. Rich people find comfort in uncertainty.
20. Average people never make the connection between money and health. Rich people know money can save your life.
21. Average people believe they must choose between a great family and being rich. Rich people know you can have it all.
Saturday, February 15, 2014
קצת על קורולציות
GOLD
Although not perfect, gold and other commodities do have some correlation with currencies.
In fact, in the Forex market currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar are referred to as commodity currencies.
Gold-USD correlation is a significant Forex market indicator.
Gold, denominated in terms of US dollars, shares a strong negative correlation such that when gold prices rise the dollar falls and vice versa. Therefore traders use the gold price to gauge USD sentiment.
The Aussie dollar generally has a positive correlation with gold because Australia is currently one of the world’s largest producers of gold.
So generally speaking, this also means that when gold prices rise, the Aussie dollar appreciates as well.
The proximity between New Zealand and Australia makes Australia a preferred destination for exporting New Zealand goods. Therefore the Aussie and Kiwi dollar are generally positively correlated as well.
Oil is currently one of the world’s most important commodities.
The Canadian dollar is generally positively correlated to the price of oil. This is because Canada is a large oil exporter.
This means when oil prices are high, Canada reaps greater revenues from oil exports thus strengthening the Canadian dollar.
Having said that, there are also other factors that move the Forex market such as inflation, interest rates, political conditions and so on. But It never hurts to be informed about commodity prices and how they drive currency movements.
CADUSD
When most people think of oil producing nations their thoughts typically go straight to countries in the Middle East. Canada, though is one of the top oil producing nations in the world and its economy is heavily tied to the energy industry. What that means is that when the price of oil rises, the Canadian economy profits and this will usually result in an appreciation, or greater demand for, the Canadian dollar....
Furthermore, although Canada has smaller overall reserves than some big oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Canada is still the biggest exporter of oil to the United States. This is largely a result of its close proximity but it’s also because Canada is a much more stable oil exporter than the others.
Correlation
The correlation between the price of oil and CAD means that forex traders who want to profit from a rise in oil can bet on CAD. Also, since oil is extremely volatile, CAD offers a much safer way to go about it.
Betting on CADUSD is an even better option since oil and the US dollar are negatively correlated. Oil is priced in US dollars which means if one goes down the other goes up and this can occur for a number of reasons.
Why oil can surge
For one, the price of oil can go up as a result of a decrease in supply or an increase in demand. With booming populations the demand for oil goes up. Moreover, total global supplies of oil are known to be dwindling.
Second, disruptions to supply such as war in the Middle East can spark rapid price increases in oil.
Why the US dollar can drop
The US dollar can drop as a result of money printing by the Federal Reserve. The expectation of high inflation can cause the value of the greenback to depreciate. A deteriorating current account balance could also cause traders to sell the dollar.
When these conditions all line up together, you have the perfect conditions for a surge in oil and for forex traders, the best way to play this is by buying CADUSD.
Although not perfect, gold and other commodities do have some correlation with currencies.
In fact, in the Forex market currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar are referred to as commodity currencies.
Gold-USD correlation is a significant Forex market indicator.
Gold, denominated in terms of US dollars, shares a strong negative correlation such that when gold prices rise the dollar falls and vice versa. Therefore traders use the gold price to gauge USD sentiment.
The Aussie dollar generally has a positive correlation with gold because Australia is currently one of the world’s largest producers of gold.
So generally speaking, this also means that when gold prices rise, the Aussie dollar appreciates as well.
The proximity between New Zealand and Australia makes Australia a preferred destination for exporting New Zealand goods. Therefore the Aussie and Kiwi dollar are generally positively correlated as well.
Oil is currently one of the world’s most important commodities.
The Canadian dollar is generally positively correlated to the price of oil. This is because Canada is a large oil exporter.
This means when oil prices are high, Canada reaps greater revenues from oil exports thus strengthening the Canadian dollar.
Having said that, there are also other factors that move the Forex market such as inflation, interest rates, political conditions and so on. But It never hurts to be informed about commodity prices and how they drive currency movements.
CADUSD
When most people think of oil producing nations their thoughts typically go straight to countries in the Middle East. Canada, though is one of the top oil producing nations in the world and its economy is heavily tied to the energy industry. What that means is that when the price of oil rises, the Canadian economy profits and this will usually result in an appreciation, or greater demand for, the Canadian dollar....
Furthermore, although Canada has smaller overall reserves than some big oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Canada is still the biggest exporter of oil to the United States. This is largely a result of its close proximity but it’s also because Canada is a much more stable oil exporter than the others.
Correlation
The correlation between the price of oil and CAD means that forex traders who want to profit from a rise in oil can bet on CAD. Also, since oil is extremely volatile, CAD offers a much safer way to go about it.
Betting on CADUSD is an even better option since oil and the US dollar are negatively correlated. Oil is priced in US dollars which means if one goes down the other goes up and this can occur for a number of reasons.
Why oil can surge
For one, the price of oil can go up as a result of a decrease in supply or an increase in demand. With booming populations the demand for oil goes up. Moreover, total global supplies of oil are known to be dwindling.
Second, disruptions to supply such as war in the Middle East can spark rapid price increases in oil.
Why the US dollar can drop
The US dollar can drop as a result of money printing by the Federal Reserve. The expectation of high inflation can cause the value of the greenback to depreciate. A deteriorating current account balance could also cause traders to sell the dollar.
When these conditions all line up together, you have the perfect conditions for a surge in oil and for forex traders, the best way to play this is by buying CADUSD.
5 steps to becoming a professionnal trader
5 steps to becoming a professionnal trader
Step One: Unconscious Incompetence
This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. You know that it is a good way of making money because you've heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy - after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down - what's the big secret to that then – let’s get cracking!
Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven't got the first damn clue about what you're trying to do. You take lots of trades
and lots of risks. When you enter a trade, it turns against you, so you reverse and it turns again, and again, and again.
You may have initial success and that’s even worse because it tells your brain that this really is simple and you start to risk more money.
You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you'll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised. You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.
Step Two - Conscious Incompetence
Step two is where you realize that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realize that you are an incompetent trader - you don't have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.
You now set about buying trading systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine and begin your search for the holy grail. During this time you will be a system nomad - you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you'll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.
You will test out automated systems, you'll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support & resistance, pivots, fractals, divergences, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein
hope that your 'magic system' starts today. You will also become a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you'll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.
You'll go into the live chat room and see other traders making profits and you want to know why it's not you - you'll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You'll then reach the point where you think all the ones who say they are making profits are all liars - they can’t be making that amount because you've studied and you don't make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they're in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.
You will be like a teenager - the traders that make money will freely give you advice but, you're stubborn and think that you know best - you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to but you know better. You'll consider following the calls that others make but even then it won’t work so you try paying for signals from someone else - they don't work for you either.
You might even approach a guru or someone on a chat board who promises to make you into a trader (usually for a fee of course). Whether the guru is good or not you won’t win because there is no replacement for screen time and you still think you know best.
This step can last ages and ages - in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year and more nearer to three years. This is
also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration.
Around 60% of new traders quit in the first 3 months - they give up and this is good - think about it - if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. Another 20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does.
What may surprise you is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years and they will think they are safe in the water but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently.
By the way - these are real figures, not just some I’ve picked out of my head - so when you get to 3 years in the game don’t think it is plain sailing from there!
I’ve had many people argue with me about these timescales - funny enough none of them have been trading for more than 3 years - if you think you know better - then ask on a board for someone who's been trading 5 years and ask them how long it takes to become fully 100% proficient. Sure I guess there will be exceptions to the rule - but I haven’t met any yet.
Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times but now it is in your blood. One day – in a split second moment you will enter stage 3.
Step 3 - The Eureka Moment
Towards the end of stage two you begin to realize that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realize that it is actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right. You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.
This eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realize that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 minutes. Because of this revelation you stop taking any notice of what anyone thinks - what this news item will do, and what that event will do to the markets. You become an individual with your own method of trading.
You start to work just one system that you mold to your own way of trading, you're starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.
You start to take every trade that your 'edge' shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don't get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn't possibly predict it it isn't your fault - as soon as you realize that the trade is bad you close it. The next trade or the one after it or the one after that will have higher odds of success because you know your system works. You stop looking at trading results from a trade-to-trade perspective and start to look at weekly figures knowing that one bad trade does not a poor system make.
You have realized in an instant that the trading game is about one thing - consistency of your 'edge' and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favor.
You learn about proper money management and leverage - risk of account etc. - and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren't ready then but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.
Step 4 - Conscious Competence
You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins. You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it loses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account.
You are now at a point where at a minimum you break even - day in day out. You will have weeks where you make big money and other weeks where you lose big money – but overall you are breaking even and not losing money anymore. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.
You'll start the day on a big win, take a big loss and have no feelings that you've given those profits back because you know that it will come back again. You will slowly begin to make consistent profits week in and week out.
Step Five - Unconscious Competence
Now we’re cooking - just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade. You do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting big profits in a day doesn’t make you any more excited that getting none. You see the newbies in the forum shouting 'go market go' as if they are urging on a horse to win in the grand national and you see yourself - but many years ago now. This is trading utopia - you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.
You're a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognize yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they're teenagers - some of them will get to where you are - some will do it fast and others will be slower - literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.
Trading is no longer exciting - in fact it's probably boring you to pieces - like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job - it gets boring - you're doing your job and that's that.
Finally you grow out of the chat rooms and find a few choice people who you converse with about the markets without being
influenced at all. All the time you are honing your methods to extract the maximum profit from the market without increasing risk. Your method of trading doesn’t change - it just gets better - you now have what women call 'intuition.' You can now say with your head held high "I'm a trader" but to be honest you don’t even bother telling anyone - it's a job like any other.
I hope you’ve enjoyed reading this journey into a traders mind and that hopefully you’ve identified with some points in here.
Remember that only 5% will actually make it - but the reason for that isn’t ability, its staying power and the ability to change your perceptions and paradigms as new information comes available. The losers are those who wanted to 'get rich quick' but approached the market and within 6 months put on a pair of blinkers so they couldn’t see the obvious - a kind of "this is the way I see it and that’s that" scenario - refusing to assimilate new information that changes that perception.
I’m happy to tell you that the reason I started trading was because of the 'get rich quick' mindset. Just that now I see it as 'get rich slow.’ If you’re thinking about giving up I have one piece of advice for you ....
Ask yourself the question "How many years would you go to college if you knew for a fact that there was a million dollars a year job at the end of it?”
Take care and good trading to you all. – Anonymous
Step One: Unconscious Incompetence
This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. You know that it is a good way of making money because you've heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires. Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy - after all, how hard can it be? Price either moves up or down - what's the big secret to that then – let’s get cracking!
Unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven't got the first damn clue about what you're trying to do. You take lots of trades
and lots of risks. When you enter a trade, it turns against you, so you reverse and it turns again, and again, and again.
You may have initial success and that’s even worse because it tells your brain that this really is simple and you start to risk more money.
You try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade. Sometimes you'll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised. You are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.
Step Two - Conscious Incompetence
Step two is where you realize that there is more work involved in trading and that you might actually have to work a few things out. You consciously realize that you are an incompetent trader - you don't have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.
You now set about buying trading systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from USA to the Ukraine and begin your search for the holy grail. During this time you will be a system nomad - you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. Every time you come upon a new indicator you'll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.
You will test out automated systems, you'll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support & resistance, pivots, fractals, divergences, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein
hope that your 'magic system' starts today. You will also become a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you'll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them because you are so sure you are right.
You'll go into the live chat room and see other traders making profits and you want to know why it's not you - you'll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You'll then reach the point where you think all the ones who say they are making profits are all liars - they can’t be making that amount because you've studied and you don't make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. But they're in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.
You will be like a teenager - the traders that make money will freely give you advice but, you're stubborn and think that you know best - you take no notice and overtrade your account even though everyone says you are mad to but you know better. You'll consider following the calls that others make but even then it won’t work so you try paying for signals from someone else - they don't work for you either.
You might even approach a guru or someone on a chat board who promises to make you into a trader (usually for a fee of course). Whether the guru is good or not you won’t win because there is no replacement for screen time and you still think you know best.
This step can last ages and ages - in fact in reality talking with other traders as well as personal experience confirms that it can easily last well over a year and more nearer to three years. This is
also the step when you are most likely to give up through sheer frustration.
Around 60% of new traders quit in the first 3 months - they give up and this is good - think about it - if trading was easy we would all be millionaires. Another 20% keep going for a year and then in desperation take risks guaranteed to blow their account which of course it does.
What may surprise you is that of the remaining 20% all of them will last around 3 years and they will think they are safe in the water but even at 3 years only a further 5-10% will continue and go on to actually make money consistently.
By the way - these are real figures, not just some I’ve picked out of my head - so when you get to 3 years in the game don’t think it is plain sailing from there!
I’ve had many people argue with me about these timescales - funny enough none of them have been trading for more than 3 years - if you think you know better - then ask on a board for someone who's been trading 5 years and ask them how long it takes to become fully 100% proficient. Sure I guess there will be exceptions to the rule - but I haven’t met any yet.
Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times but now it is in your blood. One day – in a split second moment you will enter stage 3.
Step 3 - The Eureka Moment
Towards the end of stage two you begin to realize that it's not the system that is making the difference. You realize that it is actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right. You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books and finally comes the eureka moment.
This eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain. You suddenly realize that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 minutes. Because of this revelation you stop taking any notice of what anyone thinks - what this news item will do, and what that event will do to the markets. You become an individual with your own method of trading.
You start to work just one system that you mold to your own way of trading, you're starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.
You start to take every trade that your 'edge' shows has a good probability of winning with. When the trade turns bad you don't get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn't possibly predict it it isn't your fault - as soon as you realize that the trade is bad you close it. The next trade or the one after it or the one after that will have higher odds of success because you know your system works. You stop looking at trading results from a trade-to-trade perspective and start to look at weekly figures knowing that one bad trade does not a poor system make.
You have realized in an instant that the trading game is about one thing - consistency of your 'edge' and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what as you know the probabilities stack in your favor.
You learn about proper money management and leverage - risk of account etc. - and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile. You weren't ready then but you are now. The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.
Step 4 - Conscious Competence
You are making trades whenever your system tells you to. You take losses just as easily as you take wins. You now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it loses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account.
You are now at a point where at a minimum you break even - day in day out. You will have weeks where you make big money and other weeks where you lose big money – but overall you are breaking even and not losing money anymore. You are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away. You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.
You'll start the day on a big win, take a big loss and have no feelings that you've given those profits back because you know that it will come back again. You will slowly begin to make consistent profits week in and week out.
Step Five - Unconscious Competence
Now we’re cooking - just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade. You do everything now on an unconscious level. You are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting big profits in a day doesn’t make you any more excited that getting none. You see the newbies in the forum shouting 'go market go' as if they are urging on a horse to win in the grand national and you see yourself - but many years ago now. This is trading utopia - you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.
You're a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. You recognize yourself in their questions from about two years ago. You pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile because they're teenagers - some of them will get to where you are - some will do it fast and others will be slower - literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two, but a few will.
Trading is no longer exciting - in fact it's probably boring you to pieces - like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job - it gets boring - you're doing your job and that's that.
Finally you grow out of the chat rooms and find a few choice people who you converse with about the markets without being
influenced at all. All the time you are honing your methods to extract the maximum profit from the market without increasing risk. Your method of trading doesn’t change - it just gets better - you now have what women call 'intuition.' You can now say with your head held high "I'm a trader" but to be honest you don’t even bother telling anyone - it's a job like any other.
I hope you’ve enjoyed reading this journey into a traders mind and that hopefully you’ve identified with some points in here.
Remember that only 5% will actually make it - but the reason for that isn’t ability, its staying power and the ability to change your perceptions and paradigms as new information comes available. The losers are those who wanted to 'get rich quick' but approached the market and within 6 months put on a pair of blinkers so they couldn’t see the obvious - a kind of "this is the way I see it and that’s that" scenario - refusing to assimilate new information that changes that perception.
I’m happy to tell you that the reason I started trading was because of the 'get rich quick' mindset. Just that now I see it as 'get rich slow.’ If you’re thinking about giving up I have one piece of advice for you ....
Ask yourself the question "How many years would you go to college if you knew for a fact that there was a million dollars a year job at the end of it?”
Take care and good trading to you all. – Anonymous
Monday, February 10, 2014
11.02
מדד הספיי עלה בימים האחרונים לאחר תבנית ה- Double Bottom שייצר על המחיר 174$ שמשמש גם כאזור קו התעלה התחתון בגרף היומי וכרגע נסחר במחיר חשוב של - 180$, מספר עגול בעל משמעות פסיכולוגית חזקה שגם מהווה תיקון של 50% לערך למהלך הירידות החד שספג בשבועיים האחרונים לאחר ששבר את תבנית הראש וכתפיים שנראית היטב בגרף היומי. כמו כן לאחר 5 חודשים המדד חתך שוב פעם כלפי מטה את ממוצע נע 100. השאלה הגדולה היא האם ממוצע זה ימשיך להוות תמיכה בשוק ומכאן נראה מהלך עליות משמעותי חזרה מעלה וקביעת שיא כל הזמנים חדש או שבירה שלו ושל קו התעלה העולה ששימשה כתמיכה מאז סוף 2012 מה שיוביל למהלך ירידות משמעותי.
פריצה של האזור תוכל לעלות מעלה עד להתנגדות ב- 181.50$ וב- 182$ ששם יש גם גאפ פתוח.
יש להיזהר מפריצת שווא על הרמה ולחכות לאישור אמין במיוחד עקב הסטייה הדובית החזקה שיש כרגע במתנדי המומנטום.
במידה של שבירה המדד "ייפול" עד לאזור 178.50$ ששם תחכה לו תמיכה ולאחר מכן ל- 177$ שתשמש כתמיכה חזקה יותר. הריינג' הצר כרגע הוא בין 177 ל-180 והרחב בין 182 ל- 174.
בינתיים הגרף השבועי נראה הטוב ביותר מבין הגרפים עם נר פטיש קלאסי שנוצר על ממוצע נע 34, קו תמיכה ואזור קו התעלה.
מבחינה פנדומנטלית- מצד אחד, עליית ריבית לא נראית באופק אבל צמצום הרכישות החל ונראה שגם יימשך עם השתפרות בנתוני התעסוקה. דבר נוסף שחזרו קצת להזכיר אותו באתרי כלכלה שונים וגם כי פשוט אי אפשר להתעלם ממנו הוא תקרת החוב והצוק הפיסקלי של ארה"ב.
מחר(שלישי) תנאם ג'נט יילן את נאומה הראשון כיו"ר הבנק הפדרלי מה שמאוד ישפיע על השוק.
בהצלחה.
*דעתי בלבד.
מה עשיתי היום?
שורט קצר ונחמד ה- SPY.
+13 cent, תודה לשוק.
הגיגים:
"If you don’t understand why you are in a trade, you won’t understand when it is the right time to sell, which means you will only sell when the price action scares you. Most of the time when price action scares you, it is a buying opportunity, not a sell indicator." - Hedge Fund Wizards
"Whenever I enter a trade I look for reasons to get out as well as reasons to stay in. I try to disprove the trade as much as possible to balance any bias I might have developed." Dee Ma
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