קצת על קורולציות

GOLD

Although not perfect, gold and other commodities do have some correlation with currencies.
In fact, in the Forex market currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollar are referred to as commodity currencies.
Gold-USD correlation is a significant Forex market indicator.
Gold, denominated in terms of US dollars, shares a strong negative correlation such that when gold prices rise the dollar falls and vice versa. Therefore traders use the gold price to gauge USD sentiment.
The Aussie dollar generally has a positive correlation with gold because Australia is currently one of the world’s largest producers of gold.
So generally speaking, this also means that when gold prices rise, the Aussie dollar appreciates as well.
The proximity between New Zealand and Australia makes Australia a preferred destination for exporting New Zealand goods. Therefore the Aussie and Kiwi dollar are generally positively correlated as well.
Oil is currently one of the world’s most important commodities.
The Canadian dollar is generally positively correlated to the price of oil. This is because Canada is a large oil exporter.
This means when oil prices are high, Canada reaps greater revenues from oil exports thus strengthening the Canadian dollar.
Having said that, there are also other factors that move the Forex market such as inflation, interest rates, political conditions and so on. But It never hurts to be informed about commodity prices and how they drive currency movements.

CADUSD

When most people think of oil producing nations their thoughts typically go straight to countries in the Middle East. Canada, though is one of the top oil producing nations in the world and its economy is heavily tied to the energy industry. What that means is that when the price of oil rises, the Canadian economy profits and this will usually result in an appreciation, or greater demand for, the Canadian dollar....

Furthermore, although Canada has smaller overall reserves than some big oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Canada is still the biggest exporter of oil to the United States. This is largely a result of its close proximity but it’s also because Canada is a much more stable oil exporter than the others.

Correlation

The correlation between the price of oil and CAD means that forex traders who want to profit from a rise in oil can bet on CAD. Also, since oil is extremely volatile, CAD offers a much safer way to go about it.

Betting on CADUSD is an even better option since oil and the US dollar are negatively correlated. Oil is priced in US dollars which means if one goes down the other goes up and this can occur for a number of reasons.

Why oil can surge

For one, the price of oil can go up as a result of a decrease in supply or an increase in demand. With booming populations the demand for oil goes up. Moreover, total global supplies of oil are known to be dwindling.

Second, disruptions to supply such as war in the Middle East can spark rapid price increases in oil.

Why the US dollar can drop

The US dollar can drop as a result of money printing by the Federal Reserve. The expectation of high inflation can cause the value of the greenback to depreciate. A deteriorating current account balance could also cause traders to sell the dollar.

When these conditions all line up together, you have the perfect conditions for a surge in oil and for forex traders, the best way to play this is by buying CADUSD.